We are now in full scale Spot ETF hype mode with Bitcoin smashing through resistant levels, maybe even heading to break through $50,000 this month. With the halving coming soon too what can we expect for the next few months?
Bitcoin Futures ETF
Back in Oct 2021, Bitcoin experienced a similar event to the current buzz we have now over Spot ETFs. Just over 2 years ago (18th October 2021) we had the first approved Bitcoin Futures ETF. If you take a look at the graph below you’ll see that the leadup to the actual approval date was just as frenzied as we are experiencing now, with Bitcoin on a steep upwards projection.
Look at the rapid climb the month prior to the actual approval of the Bitcoin Futures ETF, then a small pull back on the actual date, as some of course “sold the news”, before a another push to establish a new all time high. The ATH signalled the end of the bull run with Bitcoin starting a deep decline.
Gold Spot ETFs.
We can also take a look at the launch of Gold Spot ETFs which is a similair asset to Bitcoin. The Gold ETF, which was launched on November 18th 2004, gained over $1 billion in assets in just its first three days. Just over a year later it climbed $5 billion, and three years later had amassed $10 billion.
But looking at the first couple of months for the Gold ETF, there was a pull back and some instability before it really took off.
Bitcoin 6 Months Prediction
Just for a bit of fun as I’m certainly not offering financial advice, lets assume the SEC are going to approve a batch of ETFs early next year before the 10th Jan 2024 deadline. We’ve seen over the last couple of months, each and every time Bitcoin has experienced a small downturn, it’s been quickly bought back and gone higher, simply because everybody is anticipating the approval of ETFs. I can’t see any reason why this will change until ETFs are either approved or denied.
So up until ETF approval there should be plenty more upside, quiet possibly breaking through $50,000 this month and maybe even much higher.
After ETF approval I think there maybe a small pullback but then a surge that breaks the all time high before we experience some form of correction. I don’t think the correction will be too brutal, maybe similair to what the Gold ETF experienced of around 10%. After the correction, beyond the Bitcoin halving in April 2024 a steady surge with a new ATH later this year over $100,000.
What If Bitcoin Spot ETFs Are Denied?
If the SEC for some reason deny, or even delay Spot ETFs then expect a big pullback. After the pullback a slow and steady rise, and a new ATH either late 2024 or the first quarter of 2025. But in all honesty I think Bitcoin Spot ETFs will be a reality very soon!
Final Thoughts
I’ve been involved with crypto for nearly 10 years, so I’m fully aware that the reality is anything can happen, and to definitely expect the unexpected. But that is why we all love Bitcoin, isn’t it?
